Pakistan orders US to leave airbase in row over deadly Nato assault

Pakistan has given the US 15 days to vacate an airbase used as a key launchpad for drone strikes in Afghanistan in retaliation for a mistaken attack on a Pakistani border outpost that killed at least 24 soldiers and injured 13.

American forces were told to leave the remote Shamsi airbase, secretly given over to the US after 9/11, following an emergency meeting of Pakistan's top civilian and military leadership late on Saturday. Pakistan has also blocked supply routes for US-led troops in Afghanistan.

Shamsi was used heavily for launching the war in Afghanistan in late 2001, and later served as the base for the US drone programme. Set in sparsely populated desert in the western Baluchistan province, Shamsi is highly controversial within Pakistan for its association with drones, which Islamabad officially condemns.

The decision of the country's defence committee of the cabinet is an admission that Shamsi remains in American hands. The committee announced that the government would "revisit and undertake a complete review of all programmes, activities and co-operative arrangements" with the US, and US-led forces in Afghanistan, "including diplomatic, political, military and intelligence".

Relations between Islamabad and Washington were already under deep strain before the incident, in which helicopters from the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) operating in Afghanistan shelled checkpoints on the Pakistani side, apparently in error. More

Propagandistan

Why is the Pentagon spending tens of millions of U.S. tax dollars to whitewash the image of Central Asian dictatorships?

BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan – When people read a news website, they don't usually imagine that it is being run by a major producer of fighter jets and smart bombs. But when the Pentagon has its own vision of America's foreign policy, and the funds to promote it, it can put a $23 billion defense contractor in a unique position to report on the war on terror.

Over the past three years, a subdivision of Virginia-based General Dynamics has set up and run a network of eight "influence websites" funded by the Defense Department with more than $120 million in taxpayer money. The sites, collectively known as the Trans Regional Web Initiative (TRWI) and operated by General Dynamics Information Technology, focus on geographic areas under the purview of various U.S. combatant commands, including U.S. Central Command. In its coverage of Uzbekistan, a repressive dictatorship increasingly important to U.S. military goals in Afghanistan, a TRWI website called Central Asia Online has shown a disturbing tendency to downplay the autocracy's rights abuses and uncritically promote its claims of terrorist threats.

Central Asia Online was created in 2008, a time when Washington's ability to rely on Pakistan as a partner in the U.S.-led operation in Afghanistan was steadily waning. In the search for alternative land routes to supply U.S. troops, Uzbekistan seemed the best option. Nearby Iran was a non-starter, and Uzbekistan's infrastructure -- used by the Soviets to get in and out of Afghanistan during their ill-fated war there -- was far superior to that of neighboring Tajikistan. Today, the U.S. military moves massive amounts of cargo across Uzbekistan. By year's end, the Pentagon hopes to see 75 percent of all non-lethal military supplies arrive in Afghanistan via the so-called Northern Distribution Network, a web of land-based transport routes stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Amu Darya River. More

Iran and the I.A.E.A.

November 19, 2011 "New Yorker" - -The first question in last Saturday night’s Republican debate on foreign policy dealt with Iran, and a newly published report by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The report, which raised renewed concern about the “possible existence of undeclared nuclear facilities and material in Iran,” struck a darker tone than previous assessments. But it was carefully hedged. On the debate platform, however, any ambiguity was lost. One of the moderators said that the I.A.E.A. report had provided “additional credible evidence that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon” and asked what various candidates, upon winning the Presidency, would do to stop Iran. Herman Cain said he would assist those who are trying to overthrow the government. Newt Gingrich said he would coördinate with the Israeli government and maximize covert operations to block the Iranian weapons program. Mitt Romney called the state of Iran’s nuclear program Obama’s “greatest failing, from a foreign-policy standpoint” and added, “Look, one thing you can know … and that is if we reëlect Barack Obama Iran will have a nuclear weapon.” The Iranian bomb was a sure thing Saturday night.

I’ve been reporting on Iran and the bomb for The New Yorker for the past decade, with a focus on the repeatedly inability of the best and the brightest of the Joint Special Operations Command to find definitive evidence of a nuclear-weapons production program in Iran. The goal of the high-risk American covert operations was to find something physical—a “smoking calutron,” as a knowledgeable official once told me—to show the world that Iran was working on warheads at an undisclosed site, to make the evidence public, and then to attack and destroy the site.

The Times reported, in its lead story the day after the report came out, that I.A.E.A. investigators “have amassed a trove of new evidence that, they say, makes a ‘credible’ case” that Iran may be carrying out nuclear-weapons activities. The newspaper quoted a Western diplomat as declaring that “the level of detail is unbelievable…. The report describes virtually all the steps to make a nuclear warhead and the progress Iran has achieved in each of those steps. It reads likes a menu.” The Times set the tone for much of the coverage. (A second Times story that day on the I.A.E.A. report noted, more cautiously, that “it is true that the basic allegations in the report are not substantially new, and have been discussed by experts for years.”) More

Pak Taliban no longer a unified group: Time for Reconciliation, Rehabilitation Reintegration

ISLAMABAD: The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has splintered into dozens of groups and no longer functions as a unified insurgent force, militant sources and security experts said.

They said power struggles between rival militant commanders, both for overall control of the TTP and regional leadership, has fractured the coordinated command structure created by the charismatic militant overlord, Baitullah Mahsud, killed in a 2009 drone strike.

There are now an estimated 50-60 factions operating under the TTP banner that do not answer to its political leader, Hakimulah Mahsud, the militant sources and security experts said. “The TTP is no longer an effective organisation. It is riddled with splits and divisions. They have merely not announced a formal split, because were that to become common knowledge, the TTP would lose all credibility and power, and thus leverage,” said Mansur Khan Mahsud, director of research at the Fata Research Centre, an independent think tank based in Islamabad.

The Inter Services Public Relations, as a matter of policy, does not comment on the findings of independent research. The militant sources and security experts said infighting within the TTP has been rife since the demise of Baitullah Mahsud. Many faction leaders consider Hakimullah Mahsud, the political head of the TTP, a usurper. More

Iran's Nuclear Program and the Legal Mandate of the IAEA

The IAEA went outside of its legal mandate with its latest report on Iran, a move that has been viewed by some states as indicating the IAEA's shift from a technical body to a politicized one...
November 15, 2011 "Jurist" -- On November 8, Yukiya Amano, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), delivered a formal report [PDF] on Iran's nuclear program to the IAEA Board of Governors and the UN Security Council.

This report is most notable for its analysis and findings regarding possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program. In previous reports, the Director General had expressed concern about this as well. However, in this report, the Director General's office provided its most thorough and comprehensive analysis of all information and evidence that it has acquired on Iran's nuclear program, either directly through the work of IAEA inspectors, or by the provision of information to the IAEA by national governments.

The report details information on Iran's nuclear program and presents information which, the report asserts, "indicates that Iran has carried out ... activities that are relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device." Most of the evidence for this assertion presented in this report has been known in official and non-official circles for some time. However, the report is notable for its public presentation of the information on Iranian weapons-related activities held by the IAEA, and its detailed analysis of that information. This analysis includes a discussion of Iran's capabilities and activities with regard to the production and enrichment of fissile material, in particular uranium, which has been the subject of a number of IAEA Board of Governors reports and UN Security Council decisions. More

Pak Taliban no longer a unified group: Time for Reconciliation, Rehabilitation Reintegration

ISLAMABAD: The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has splintered into dozens of groups and no longer functions as a unified insurgent force, militant sources and security experts said.

They said power struggles between rival militant commanders, both for overall control of the TTP and regional leadership, has fractured the coordinated command structure created by the charismatic militant overlord, Baitullah Mahsud, killed in a 2009 drone strike.

There are now an estimated 50-60 factions operating under the TTP banner that do not answer to its political leader, Hakimulah Mahsud, the militant sources and security experts said. “The TTP is no longer an effective organisation. It is riddled with splits and divisions. They have merely not announced a formal split, because were that to become common knowledge, the TTP would lose all credibility and power, and thus leverage,” said Mansur Khan Mahsud, director of research at the Fata Research Centre, an independent think tank based in Islamabad.

The Inter Services Public Relations, as a matter of policy, does not comment on the findings of independent research. The militant sources and security experts said infighting within the TTP has been rife since the demise of Baitullah Mahsud. Many faction leaders consider Hakimullah Mahsud, the political head of the TTP, a usurper. More

Israel vs Iran: the regional blowback

The prospect of an Israeli military assault on Iran's nuclear assets is growing. The scale and impact of any attack would be far greater than most observers expect.

The pre-publication hype surrounding the new report on Iran's nuclear ambitions from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicated that the conclusions would be definitive. In light of it, the document - released on 9 November 2011 - is rather cautious. It does claim that Iran has made sustained efforts to develop nuclear-warhead technology, though many of these occurred in the early 2000s and there is little hard evidence of what is happening now. It is the link between the weapons research and two other factors that makes the case for revisiting Iran's nuclear ambitions.

The first is the programme of uranium enrichment which is steadily accumulating stocks of lower-level reactor-grade uranium (about 4% enrichment) and a much smaller amount of research-reactor fuel (rated at 20%). Weapons-grade fissile material requires enrichment to well over 80%, but that could be within grasp; alongside the warhead work, this suggests Iran has made real progress towards a virtual bomb, even if it is still some way from being a nuclear power or even taking the final decision to become one. More

India, Pakistan Tout Progress in Relationship

The leaders of Pakistan and India on Thursday vowed to begin a "new chapter" in bilateral relations, marking recent steps by the longtime nuclear-armed antagonists to move beyond their fractious past, Reuters reported
Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani and his Indian equivalent, Manmohan Singh, met for close to an hour on an island in the Maldives.
"The next round of talks will be more positive, more constructive and will open a new chapter in the history of both countries," Gilani said to journalists following the meeting, which took place on the margins of a South Asian regional summit. "I can only assure you that I discussed all core issues."
Outstanding topics between the two states include the disputed Kashmir territory, terrorism, the sharing of natural resources and their respective nuclear arsenals. Pakistan and India have gone to war three times since 1947.
New Delhi and Islamabad earlier this year renewed their bilateral peace process after a multiyear hiatus prompted by the 2008 terrorist attacks that killed over 160 people in the Indian city of Mumbai. India blamed Pakistan for not doing enough to target the extremists that operated from its territory.
"We will resume this dialogue with the expectation that all issues which have bedeviled relations between the two countries will be discussed," according to Singh. "The time has come to write a new chapter in the history of the relationship of the two countries." More

Pakistan seeks full SCO membership

The prime minister is accompanied by Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Dr Asim Hussain, Board of Investment’s Chairman Saleem Mandviwala and Senator Sughra Imam.

Mr Gilani will address the 10th SCO summit on Monday and seek Pakistan’s full membership of the organisation, whose profile and scope have assumed great importance with the presence of China, Russia and other Central Asian states as strong regional partners.
The prime minister is scheduled to hold separate meetings with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who are attending the summit along with other heads of governments and representatives of member and observer states. Pakistan holds the observer status, along with Mongolia, India and Iran, whereas Sri Lanka and Belarus have been granted the status of dialogue partners and Afghanistan is a special guest.

Ambassador to Russia Khalid Khattak said Pakistan carried regional significance at the SCO forum in the context of security and geographical location that linked South Asia with the energy-rich Central Asia. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao will meet on Monday to discuss expanding their loose Central Asian security alliance to include Pakistan and Iran.
Mr Putin will host Mr Wen in this city almost exactly 10 years after the two countries joined forces with the four ex-Soviet Central Asian republics to form the SCO. More

The Ally From Hell

Pakistan lies. It hosted Osama bin Laden (knowingly or not). Its government is barely functional. It hates the democracy next door. It is home to both radical jihadists and a large and growing nuclear arsenal (which it fears the U.S. will seize). Its intelligence service sponsors terrorists who attack American troops. With a friend like this, who needs enemies?
SHORTLY AFTER AMERICAN NAVY SEALs raided the Pakistani city of Abbottabad in May and killed Osama bin Laden, General Ashfaq Kayani, the Pakistani chief of army staff, spoke with Khalid Kidwai, the retired lieutenant general in charge of securing Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Kidwai, who commands a security apparatus called the Strategic Plans Division (SPD), had been expecting Kayani’s call.

General Kayani, the most powerful man in a country that has only a simulacrum of civilian leadership, had been busy in the tense days that followed the bin Laden raid: he had to assure his American funders (U.S. taxpayers provide more than $2 billion in annual subsidies to the Pakistani military) that the army had no prior knowledge of bin Laden’s hideout, located less than a mile from Pakistan’s preeminent military academy; and at the same time he had to subdue the uproar within his ranks over what was seen as a flagrant violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty by an arrogant Barack Obama. But he was also anxious about the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, and he found time to express this worry to General Kidwai. More

ISAF Data Show Night Raids Killed over 1,500 Afghan Civilians

WASHINGTON, Nov 2, 2011 (IPS) - U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) killed well over 1,500 civilians in night raids in less than 10 months in 2010 and early 2011, analysis of official statistics on the raids released by the U.S.-NATO command reveals.

That number would make U.S. night raids by far the largest cause of civilian casualties in the war in Afghanistan. The report by the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan on civilian casualties in 2010 had said the use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) by insurgents was the leading cause of civilian deaths, with 904.
Except for a relatively few women and children killed by accident, the civilians who died in the raids were all adult males who were counted as insurgents in press releases and official data released by the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF).

The data on night raids, which were given to selected news media, cover three distinct 90-day night raid campaigns from May through July 2010, early August to early November, and mid-November to mid- February. The combined totals for the three periods indicate that a minimum of 2,599 rank and file insurgents were killed and an additional 723 "leaders" killed or captured in raids. [See Sidebar].
Assuming conservatively that one-third of the alleged leaders were killed, the total number of alleged insurgents killed in the raids was 2,844.

Official Data on Night Raids
ISAF has leaked a set of statistics on insurgents killed in night raids published in major news outlets covering three 90- day campaigns of night raids. In August 2010, ISAF released figures to the Washington Post showing that 1,031 rank and file insurgents had been killed from May through July. In November 2010 the New York Times reported a total of 968 rank and file insurgents killed in the three months from Aug. 11 through Nov. 11.
Reuters reported on Feb. 24, 2011 that 600 people were killed during the 90 days from Nov. 18 to Feb. 18. The figure did not distinguish between rank and file and "leaders". Those three subtotals add up to 2,599 killed from May 2010 to mid-February 2011.

The Washington Post and New York Times articles also reported 355 and 368 "leaders" killed or captured during the May-July and August-November periods, totaling 723. An unknown proportion of that total was deliberately assassinated. Nevertheless, it is assumed in estimating the number killed in the raids that the proportion of alleged "leaders" killed to the total killed and captured in the first two campaigns was the same as the proportion of rank and file killed of the total killed and captured: 34 percent of 723, or 245.

The sum of the totals of 2,599 alleged insurgents and 245 alleged "leaders" assumed to have been killed in the raids comes to 2,844. The total number or SOF night raids can be estimated from officially leaked subtotals of 3,000 from May through July; 1,572 from Aug. 11 to Nov. 11, and 1,710 from Nov. 18 to Feb. 18.

Those subtotals add up to 6,282 night raids for the entire 10 months. SOF night raids during the 10-month period totaled 6,282, according to the same ISAF data. More