Study: Climate change to affect monsoon in South Asia

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. (AP) Feb 27, 2009 — The South Asian summer monsoon — critical to agriculture in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan — could be weakened and delayed due to rising temperatures in the future, according to a recent climate modeling study.

A Purdue University research group found that climate change could influence monsoon dynamics and cause less summer precipitation, a delay in the start of monsoon season and longer breaks between the rainy periods.

Noah Diffenbaugh, whose research group led the study, said the summer monsoon affects water resources, agriculture, economics, ecosystems and human health throughout South Asia. More >>>

Dr. Swaran Singh at SASSI

China-India-Pakistan: Nuclear Command and Control in Southern Asia

On Wednesday 25th February Dr. Swaran Singh, Senior Visiting Fellow at SASSI gave a talk on Nuclear Command and Control in Southern Asia.

Given their geographical proximity, history of wars, varieties of political models - which are often perceived as complicated and fragile - all put premium in expanding their mutual trust and understanding on all the components of their nuclear deterrence doctrines. Especially, dated inventories of their C4I2R technologies also place undue expectations from their political judgment and authority in ensuring Southern Asia's strategic stability.
This need for 'restraint' and quick threat assessment and appropriate response, in absence of second-strike capabilities has only limited lessons to learn from the East-West nuclear theologies of Cold War years. All this clearly underlines the criticality of understanding and advertising the strengths and weaknesses of the political component of the nuclear command and control of these three countries.
All three nuclear establishments continue to face unique new internal and external challenges. However, their experiences may make a seminal contribution to understanding of nuclear deterrence equations amongst the new nuclear states amongst the developing countries.


Prof. Swaran Singh is Professor of Diplomacy and Disarmament studies at the
School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He is President, Association of ASIA Scholars (South Asia Chapter), New Delhi and General Secretary, Indian Congress of Asian & Pacific Studies, Varanasi as well as a Member, ASF Regional Review Committee (South Asia), New Delhi

UK's ex-science chief predicts century of 'resource' wars

13 February 2009 - The Iraq war was just the first of this century's "resource wars", in which powerful countries use force to secure valuable commodities, according to the UK government's former chief scientific adviser. Sir David King predicts that with population growth, natural resources dwindling, and seas rising due to climate change, the squeeze on the planet will lead to more conflict.

"Future historians might look back on our particular recent past and see the Iraq war as the first of the conflicts of this kind - the first of the resource wars," he told an audience of 400 in London as he delivered the British Humanist Association's Darwin Day lecture.

Implicitly rejecting the US and British governments' claim they went to war to remove Saddam Hussein and search for weapons of mass destruction, he said the US had in reality been very concerned about energy security and supply, because of its reliance on foreign oil from unstable states. "Casting its eye around the world - there was Iraq," he said. More >>>

Smith Schools of Enterprise and the Environment - Oxford

University of Oxford - News

Obama Moving on Nuclear Arms Control Pledges, Expert Says

CHICAGO -- Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2009 - U.S. President Barack Obama is converting his campaign promises on nuclear nonproliferation into policy and is beginning to move to meet those pledges, one nonproliferation expert said yesterday.

The new administration has already indicated that its next budget would include no funding for development of a new nuclear weapon and that it intends to cut spending on missile defense activities, said Joseph Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund.

Obama has also shown a willingness to engage with known nuclear-weapon states such as Russia and North Korea and with one nation still suspected in Washington of having nuclear weapons aspirations -- Iran.
MORE >>>

Talk on ‘Significance of Nuclear deterrence in South Asia’

Press Release

ISLAMABAD, February 11, 2009: India yet can’t compete against China on a nuclear platform, Brigadier (Retd) Samson Simon Sharaf, a renowned security analyst, said here Wednesday. He was giving a talk on ‘The Significance of Military Geography and Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia’ arranged by the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI), an independent think tank dedicated to promoting peace and stability in South Asia.

Brigadier (Retd) Samson Simon Sharaf presented deterrence in relation to both India and Pakistan, stating that India yet cannot compete against China on a nuclear platform. He also discussed the constraints on the Indian nuclear capabilities and explained the Indian nuclear doctrine as well.
The former army officer also gave details about impacts of the recent US-India nuclear deal on deterrence in South Asia and addressed the Kargil conflict and the prospects of limited conflict between two South Asian nuclear states. He also explained the dimensions of nuclear deterrence in Pakistan and Indian coercion techniques. He said that on the one side are those who think deterrence is difficult.
“They focus on the complexities of the escalation ladder, and the need to deter highly aggressive, revisionist, risk-taking opponents under all foreseeable contingencies. Having taken major nuclear powers into confidence India appears to have followed this course,” he elaborated.
Defining the deterrence as “to threaten a response to a given action in order that the perpetrator is convinced that the benefits of the action will be outweighed by the costs incurred and is thus persuaded not to act as planned,” Brig (Retd) Sharaf said on the other side are those who think that nuclear weapons make deterrence easy. He said they tend to support policies of minimum deterrence, the logic being that deterrence is made effective by the appalling consequences of even small nuclear strikes. He said in Pakistan, the jargons such as credible, minimum, matching and continuously upgraded deterrence capability make the whole of issue of the nuclear deterrence confusing.
The speaker also went on to elaborate on the strategy of ‘Compellence’ and how it acts as a contrast agent with regard to the strategy of deterrence. He then explained some of the visible dynamics that are associated with deterrence and some facts such as the range of actions at the deterrents disposal, application of the deterrence theory in state of an unequal relationship and also a pre-requisite of an adversarial relationship which is based on strategic differences.
Earlier, in the opening remarks SASSI Director Maria Sultan highlighted the importance of deterrence and introduced the topic. She said that SASSI takes a multi-disciplinary approach focused on strategic stability aimed at bringing together various streams of thought from the social and natural sciences, the policymakers and academia.
Masood Ur Rehman, a research fellow at SASSI, made a brief presentation on deterrence in South Asia. He elaborated on the credibility of nuclear deterrence in South Asia, saying there are several issues which affect the credibility of nuclear deterrence in South Asia. These include the Kashmir issue, water-sharing disputes between India and Pakistan, ambiguous nuclear doctrine, pursuit of BMD technology by India, arms race between India and Pakistan, accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons, terrorists or extremists, command and control systems.
Brig (Retd) Samson Simon Sharaf’s presentation was followed by a question-answer session, in which Dr Rifaat Hussain, chairman of the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, said that the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) had stated in its manifesto that they would conduct nuclear tests so it was not a surprise for the world. He said that compellence never works but deterrence.
In the end, Maria Sultan thanked the audience and appreciated their presence.

ENDS

Fresh Water Under Threat in South Asia

(UNEP) Dec 2008- Fresh Water Under Threat: South Asia. Vulnerability Assessment of Freshwater Resources to Environmental Change.

This report focuses on three major river basins in South Asia: the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, the Indus and the Helmand. It is divided into five chapters. The first chapter introduces the study, answering two major questions: Why vulnerability assessment is important? How are we going to assess vulnerability?

The second chapter summarizes the specific methodology used in the assessment including calculating the Vulnerability Index (VI). The third chapter describes the important geographic and socioeconomic conditions of South Asia. It also outlines the status of the region’s freshwater attributes. The outline provides the background for the water problems in South Asia, and points to the elements of water vulnerability used in this indepth analysis of the river basins. The fourth chapter contains the findings of the vulnerability assessment for the selected river basins: GBM, Indus and Helmand.

The objective is to examine the significance and magnitude of environmental and socioeconomic factors associated with freshwater resources vulnerability. The fifth chapter provides the conclusions of the assessment, based on the relevant findings presented in the previous chapters. General policy directions aimed at minimizing the vulnerability of freshwater in South Asia are suggested.
View the full document (PDF *, 2.28MB)