Scientists will need improved weather prediction models, conclude researchers from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), in a report published in Geophysical Research Letters last month (23 April). Reliable prediction of monsoon rains five to seven days in advance is crucial for farmers, for managing water resources and for disaster management, they say.
The researchers say that weather in tropical regions is inherently more difficult to predict than in regions further north. One reason is that daily changes in temperature and wind are small in the tropics and the signals are difficult to pick up with recording instruments. Another is the way wind systems are driven in the tropics, which makes the tropical atmosphere more unstable.
The increased frequency and intensity of rainfall due to global warming will make the tropical atmosphere even more unstable and prediction more difficult in the future, they say. More >>>
