Friday, August 26, 2011

Deterrence, Demonization, and Drumbeats on Iran

When a rhetorical drumbeat about anything continues long enough and loud enough, the substance in it comes to be widely accepted as common wisdom no matter how flimsy a factual basis, if any, the substance had to begin with.





The demonization of Iran, and in particular the notion that an Iranian nuclear weapon would be a can't-possibly-live-with, must-prevent-at-all-costs proposition has become such a subject. Especially dismaying is the adding to the drumbeat by members of Congress or other political leaders who ought to know better. To what extent their doing so results from their own perceptions having been shaped by drums that have already been beaten and to what extent they are consciously manipulating a theme that sells is unclear. But the result is the same.

One subtopic on which the myth-making about Iran has proceeded apace lately concerns delivery systems Iran is likely to have in a few years. Senator James Inhofe (R-OK) has repeatedly asserted that Iran will have by 2015 an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering a weapon of mass destruction to the United States. This assertion is supposedly based on an executive-branch assessment, but as Greg Thielmann of the Arms Control Association explains, no such assessment says anything like that. There is only a worst-case scenario in an analysis released by the Pentagon that is subject to conditions such as external assistance and is by no means the same as what Inhofe is asserting. More >>>

And lest we forget, remember the 1953 Iranian coup d'état (known in Iran as the 28 Mordad coup was the overthrow of the democratically elected government of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh on 19 August 1953, orchestrated by the intelligence agencies of the United Kingdom and the United States under the name TPAJAX Project.[2] The coup saw the transition of Mohammad-Rezā Shāh Pahlavi from a constitutional monarch to an authoritarian one who relied heavily on United States support to hold on to power until his own overthrow in February 1979. Editor

Location:Islamabad