Turmoil Spillover
In 2012, Pakistan will face its most severe challenges since the Bangladesh succession crisis more than 40 years ago. Domestic instability is growing as tensions between civilian and military leaders simmer, extremists continue to expand their presence in core regions of the country, and a severe economic crisis leaves government unable to provide essential public services. The unraveling of ties with the United States adds to the anxiety. Pakistan is not headed for state failure, but the risk of severe political instability and even more direct military interference in government is on the rise.
Pakistan also faces mounting threats from across its borders. American soldiers will begin the handover of Afghanistan’s security to local troops this year. By November, about 33,000 US personnel will have left the country. The security vacuum left behind will become the Pakistani military’s primary immediate concern as Afghan refugees flow into Taliban-occupied areas of the country. Should the Taliban further consolidate territory in southern Afghanistan, those areas could become safe havens for Pakistani Taliban who are challenging Islamabad’s authority in the tribal areas.
The American withdrawal will also fuel fears inside Pakistan that Washington is effectively “handing off” informal leadership in Afghanistan to India, allowing Pakistan’s long-time rival to encircle the country. Pakistan’s perceptions are reinforced by India’s large development and diplomatic presence in Afghanistan, which will continue (and potentially increase) after the US withdrawal. Pakistan is hedging its bets on Pashtun groups in Afghanistan that have a higher likelihood of controlling any future government in Kabul. India is focused on strengthening its historical ties to northern alliance groups.
As it tries to extend its economic reach into Asia, India will find itself drawn more deeply into the South Asian geopolitical morass, potentially provoking a proxy war that spells trouble for the region. The looming security failure threatens prospects for South Asian economic integration—and just at a time when greater collaboration is needed to meet growing energy, consumption, and production demands. More
