Friday, June 8, 2012

As Al Qaeda Loses a Leader, Its Power Shifts From Pakistan

The death this week of Al Qaeda’s deputy leader, Abu Yahya al-Libi, is likely to accelerate a shift in power from the group’s dwindling leadership in Pakistan to its increasingly autonomous franchises,particularly the branch in Yemen, whose focus on attacking American interests is sure to continue, according to United States counterterrorism officials.

Ayman al-Zawahri succeeded Osama bin Laden as Al Qaeda's chief.

For now, Ayman al-Zawahri, Al Qaeda’s nominal leader, still holds the broad influence that he has consolidated since Osama bin Laden’s death last year. But the hierarchical structure of global jihad may be loosening a bit. Mr. Libi’s death in a drone strike has torn at the connective tissue between the group’s embattled leadership in Pakistan and its far-flung affiliates across the Middle East and Africa.

“Now, with most of their well-known figures out of the picture, it will be hard for Al Qaeda’s core to maintain its role as the example for its affiliates to follow,” said one American official who follows classified counterterrorism reports.

Mr. Libi’s killing may even augur increased violence as younger, more impetuous fighters vie to seize the mantle of global leadership, analysts say. At the top of that list are leaders from the affiliate in Yemen, formally known as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or A.Q.A.P., who three times in the last three years have tried unsuccessfully to blow up commercial airliners bound for the United States. The most recent plot was thwarted last month when the suicide bomber turned out to be simultaneously working for the Saudi, British and American intelligence agencies.

“Libi’s death won’t have an impact on A.Q.A.P.,” said Will McCants, a former State Department counterterrorism official who now works for the Center for Naval Analyses outside Washington.

"You cannot fight an idea, not even with the strongest military in the world". Whether it is against Al Qaeda or the Palestinian's fight against an illegal occupation of their homeland or the Occupy Movement, an idea cannot be killed. An idea is the original and ultimate Phoenix, it rises from the ashes of every dead Insurgent or freedom fighter stronger and more potent. Without addressing the underlying cause of discontent the range of this mythological creature will surely spread. Editor