Potentially serious Water Issue coming Pakistan's way
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| Kabul River Basin |
It is estimated that by 2050 global warming will melt Himalayan glaciers by 40% reducing water flow in the Indus river basin to nearly half of what it is today, keeping in mind that the Kabul River is part of this basin.
Pakistan with an estimated population of 300m by 2030 will be able to irrigate only 25m acres, down from 42m today (estimated figures).
River Kabul:
The estimated population of Afghanistan is 25m & by 2050 it will be around 50m with more than 80% involved in agriculture in roughly 12m acres suitable for farming out of 20m arable land that they have, they will need more water like us for their growing population.
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| Kabul River Branches |
It is time we get involved with the Afghan Government to consider joint efforts on management of water flowing in River Kabul which joins the Indus at Attock after irrigating Peshawar valley.
We should remember we are the lower riparians in this case and will suffer immensely if the afghans start building dams, which will be their right to do so to increase their cultivable land, India is already involved in helping them out like the one in Herat.
If Afghanistan starts building a reservoir on River Kabul, and they will and if it happens without us in the loop, we will be crying foul about a conspiracy against us except that It will not be one but stupidity by our part which will have horrendous consequences for us.
Water problems can be solved easily now with the Madrid Declaration 1911 & Helsinki Rules 1966, we can also get help from looking at the Indus Basin Treaty of 1960.
I wonder if our strategic depth concept will change in time to know what is good for us but It depends on our foreign office which happens to be the GHQ because no one is better equipped in all matters than them.
Further Reading
Apocalypse on the Indus by Khalid Aziz
Click Here
Need for a Pak – Afghan Treaty On Management Of Joint Water Courses by Khalid Aziz
Click Here
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In fact South Asia would well be advised to examine riverine issues issues throughout the subcontinent from Afghanistan in the West to Bangladesh in the East, incluuding China and perhaps revisiting the Indus Water Treaty. Editor
