The pace of events in the confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the United States has accelerated rapidly in the last few months.
The mysterious destruction of an Iranian missilefacility in November was followed by a new wave of US-organized sanctions against Iran's central bank. In early January, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and offered a belligerent "recommendation" that a US aircraft carrier avoid returning there. A week later,the assassination of an official from the Natanz enrichment plant triggered Iranian calls for revenge against Israel and the United States. (The United States has categorically denied any involvement.) A war appears likely before the end of 2012 -- in some sense, it may already be underway. Nevertheless, disaster might still be averted.
Starting in late October, Israeli media depicted the country's leadership as consumed with a debate about whether or not to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. The war camp allegedly consists of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak. In aninterview broadcast on November 20, Barak told CNN that it was a matter of months -- "not two or three years" -- before Iran's nuclear program would become sufficiently dispersed as to enter a "zone of immunity." On December 1, Barak gave a similar interview to Voice of Israel radio, explaining that allowing too much time to pass would make it impossible to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. He added that the consequences of starting a war, including Iran's retaliatory missile barrages, would be manageable. "We are not looking for a war, but if Israel is pushed into a corner," it must act, he said. "We are not talking about 50,000 or 5,000 or not even 500 dead on the home front, provided everyone enters their shelter." Two days later on Israeli television, Barak said that the decision would come soon, remarking again, "This is not a matter of many years."
Actions have already followed the words. The January 11 killing of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, who was apparently in charge of buying equipment and materials for the Natanz enrichment complex, marks a watershed. Unlike previous targets since 2010, Ahmadi Roshan, a chemical engineer, does not seem to have been suspected of any role in a secret weapon-design effort. Rather, he worked at a safeguarded civilian facility. (The howls for bloody revenge heard from Iran underscore that a new line has been crossed.) Aremarkable article in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz explains that Ahmadi Roshan was killed as part of an effort to complicate the rebuilding of Iran's nuclear infrastructure -- implying that its destruction, by whatever means, is not far off. Barak's more recent assurances that such an event is "really far away" -- certainly no sooner than late March -- do not offer much comfort. More
