Nuclear Disarmament Disarmed - Gareth Evens

SINGAPORE – US President Barack Obama’s foreign-policy landscape is littered with deflated balloons. Soaring speeches, high hopes, and great expectations have yielded minimal returns.

Across the Islamic world – from North Africa to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan – we see fragile relationships, unhappy transitions, unresolved conflicts, and outright attacks on the United States, despite Obama’s case for a new beginning, movingly articulated in his June 2009 speech in Cairo. Israel, deaf to Obama’s urging, is further from reconciliation with Palestine, and closer to war with Iran, than it has ever been.

Likewise, for all the effort put into improving America’s most important bilateral relationships – those with China and Russia – ties with both countries have become increasingly tense, owing most recently to the Kremlin’s intransigence over Syria and official Chinese behavior in the South China Sea.

But the balloon that has deflated the most may be the one thatObama sent aloft in Prague in April 2009, when he made the case for rapid and serious movement toward a world free of nuclear weapons.

A good start was made with the US-Russia New START treaty to limit significantly strategic-weapon deployments, the largely successful Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference, and the productive, US-hosted Nuclear Security Summit. But, over the last year, the spirit of optimism that energized these developments has, sadly, gone missing.

This month, a group of former prime ministers, foreign and defense ministers, and military, diplomatic, and scientific leaders from 14 countries met in Singapore as the Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (APLN). They expressed their profound disappointment at what they described as the “evaporation of political will” evident in global and regional efforts toward nuclear disarmament. More

 

Interview with Mr Tibor Toth, Executive Secretary, CTBTO

Interview with Mr Tibor Toth, Executive Secretary, CTBTO at OPCW during the Seminar on OPCW's Contribution to Security and Non-proliferation of Chemical Weapons, 11-12 April 2011, The Hague, The Netherlands. (c) 2011 OPCW. All rights reserved.

Nuclear Disarmament’s Midnight Hour - Gareth Evens

CANBERRA – Last month, the Doomsday Clock’s hands were moved a minute closer to midnight by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the respected global organization that for decades has tracked the risk of a nuclear-weapons catastrophe, whether caused by accident or design, state or terrorist, fission bomb or dirty radiological bomb.

Few around the world seemed to be listening. The story – as others like it since the end of the Cold War – came and went within a half-day’s news cycle. But the Scientists’ argument was sobering, and demands attention. Progress since 2007 – when the Clock’s hands were last set at five minutes to midnight – has stalled, and political leadership has gone missing on all of the critical issues: disarmament, non-proliferation, and key building blocks needed for both.

On disarmament, the balloon has well and truly deflated. The New START treaty, signed by the United States and Russia in 2010, reduced the number of deployed strategic weapons, but left both sides’ actual stockpiles intact, their high-alert status undisturbed, weapons-modernization programs in place, disagreements about missile defense and conventional-arms imbalances unresolved – and talks on further draw-downs going nowhere.

With no further movement by the US and Russia, which together hold 95% of the world’s total of more than 20,000 nuclear weapons, no other nuclear-armed state has felt pressure to reduce its own stocks significantly, and some – China, India, and Pakistan – have been increasing them.

The 2010 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference was a modest success, mainly because it did not collapse in disarray, as had the previous one in 2005. But it could not agree on measures to strengthen the regime; its push for talks on a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the Middle East has so far gathered no momentum; North Korea is no closer to being put back in its NPT box; and Iran is closer than ever to jumping out of it, with consequences that would ricochet around the region – and the global economy – if it makes that decision.

Despite President Barack Obama’s good intentions, the US Senate is no closer to ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, while China, India, and Pakistan, among others, take shelter behind that inaction, with a fragile voluntary moratorium the only obstacle to resumed testing. And negotiations on another crucial building block for both disarmament and non-proliferation – a treaty to ban further production of weapons-grade fissile material – remain at an impasse.

The only half-way good news is that progress continues on a third building block: ensuring that weapons-usable materials, and weapons themselves, currently stored in multiple locations in 32 countries, do not fall into the hands of rogue states or terrorists. At the end of March, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak will host a follow-up meeting to Obama’s successful Nuclear Security Summit in 2010, which brought together 47 government leaders to agree on a comprehensive program aimed at securing all such materials within four years. High on the agenda will be the security implications of nuclear safety: the Fukushima catastrophe showed that nuclear-power plants may be vulnerable not only to natural disaster, but also to terrorist sabotage. More

 

The Ultimate Nuclear Test

By Sergio Duarte and Tibor Toth

NEW YORK – On 1 November, a team of over 35 experts will launch an exercise to inspect a simulated nuclear test site near the Dead Sea in Jordan—a step forward in completing the global  verification system of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).

Then on 12 November, the world’s Nobel Peace Laureates will hold a summit in Hiroshima to stress the priority of nuclear disarmament and affirm their commitment to promoting it.

Countless other international initiatives are also underway that reflect a wider revolution in thinking about nuclear weapons—a revolution that is welcome and long overdue.

After all, despite much talk of nuclear disarmament when the Cold War ended 20 years ago, more than 20,000 of these weapons still exist, with many on high alert, and each much larger than the devices that devastated Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Nine countries are known or believed to possess them, and all are improving them in various ways.

Let’s be clear, the very existence of these weapons aggravates three global nuclear threats – from existing arsenals (accidents, miscalculations, unauthorized use, or willful use), from their proliferation to additional states, and from their acquisition by terrorists.

But now a new global consensus is emerging that these weapons are militarily irrelevant in dealing with emerging threats, impossible to use without violating international humanitarian law, a source of proliferation and terrorist threats, and a waste of money and scientific talent. More >>>

IAEA defines nuclear security role after nuclear summit

The IAEA plans to play a big role in insuring that nuclear materials do not fall into the wrong hands. At the nuclear summit the world's leaders worked on a plan to make sure every one is on the same page.
With many nations looking to build more nuclear reactors to take advantage of safe nuclear power, the IAEA will play a key role globally.

There was just one problem. One of the biggest players was not there. Although Israel did send diplomats to the nuclear summit, Netanyahu did not show up. That's more politics than anything else.
The summit still managed to get a lot of things done. It would have been nice for Netanyahu to show his face, the middle east is a hot bed for nuclear materials proliferation and nuclear security threats. The nations at the nuclear summit missed a great chance to have a "group intervention" with Israel. More >>>

Obama secures 47-nation pact at nuclear summit

Wednesday, April 14, 2010 - President Obama persuaded 46 countries Tuesday to sign on to a plan to put the world's nuclear material beyond the reach of terrorists within four years, but the commitments were voluntary, and experts said reaching the goal will be difficult.

The governments attending Obama's Nuclear Security Summit agreed to take their own measures to safeguard nuclear material used in bombs, civilian nuclear reactors and power plants, and to strengthen international efforts. The gathering raised the profile of an issue long considered a sideshow in discussions of international security. More >>>

Statement by European Statesmen Released to Coincide with Nuclear Summit

Top Level Group of UK Parliamentarians for Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament and Non_Proliferation

April 13 2010 - Today, 40 senior politicians, military figures and diplomats have jointly signed an unprecedented European statement highlighting the world’s growing nuclear dangers and calling for greater international efforts to address them.

Please click here to read the full statement from 40 senior European statesmen and women. The release of the statement coincides with the Nuclear Security Summit taking place on today in Washington DC.

Representing a range of political persuasions, this is a non-partisan scaling up of the European political presence in the international nuclear debate. It also signals the formation of a new European Leadership Network for Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, designed to allow ongoing and coordinated European interventions on crucial nuclear issues. More >>>

Iran announces nuclear summit

Iran has said it will host a nuclear disarmament conference later this month as part of an efforts to ease fears Tehran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons.

Iranian officials announced the two-day conference, entitled "Nuclear energy for everyone, nuclear arms for no one", on Sunday.
Officials said that 60 countries had been invited to attend the meeting, which will run from April 17-18.
Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, said the conference aims to show that Tehran wants to promote nuclear disarmament while encouraging peaceful nuclear energy production. More >>>

US plans 'dramatic reductions' in nuclear weapons

Mr Obama outlined his vision of a world free of nuclear weapons last April.

US President Barack Obama is planning "dramatic reductions" in the country's nuclear arsenal, a senior US administration official has said.

This would come as part of a sweeping policy review designed to prevent the spread of atomic weapons, he said.

He added that the new strategy will point to a greater role for conventional weapons.

Mr Obama is holding a meeting with his Defence Secretary Robert Gates to discuss the new nuclear strategy. More >>>

Stop at START

In his speech Wednesday at the National Defense University here, Vice President Joe Biden opened a new offensive in the administration’s war on nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism.

February 18, 2010 - One near-term objective is completion and ratification of a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty between the United States and Russia. But the ultimate goal, he said, remained the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.

In the absence of a roadmap from a Start accord to global zero, one can only assume that Mr. Biden meant the continued pursuit of similar, incremental arms control agreements. But piecemeal control efforts will never work; we have to think more boldly if we are to achieve global nuclear disarmament. More >>>

Top Level Group Urges UK Leadership on Multilateral Disarmament

Cross-Party Group Urges End to Nuclear Weapons Threat

• A cross-party group of senior politicans joined former defence chiefs today to promote the cause of nuclear disarmament, an issue they described as critical but too often ignored.
• They launched the Top Level group of parliamentarians, including former foreign and defence secretaries from both main parties.
• Des Browne, a former defence secretary and convener of the group, said it would provide an authoritative voice in support of Barack Obama's appeal for nuclear disarmament. He hoped similar groups would be set up elsewhere around the world.
More >>>

Iran focuses on nuclear disarmament in Geneva

Geneva - Thu, 01 Oct 2009- Iran emphasizes on the need for nuclear disarmaments in the first round of talks between Iran and the six P5 +1 group nations in Geneva.

The Representatives from Iran and the six world nuclear powers have ended the first round of their talks in Geneva, with the second session set to begin in a few hours. A statement released by Iran's National Security Council said that the diplomats left the talks in a "calm atmosphere," and plan to return to the negotiating table after a short break. It also said that Saeed Jalili, the representative from Iran, had laid out the framework of Tehran's package of proposals and explained how it should be implemented during the initial talks.

In the first meeting, Jalili reiterated the need for a global nuclear disarmament, a long-standing Iranian demand. Other than Iran, the six countries that were represented at the summit were members of the group known as the P5+1 consisting of the permanent members of the Security Council (Russia, China, the United States, Britain, and France) plus Germany. More >>>

Prominent nuclear disarmament organization welcomes UN nuclear-free call

WASHINGTON, Sept. 24 (Xinhua) -- Global Zero, a prominent organization for international nuclear disarmament, on Thursday hailed a new United Nations resolution that aims at nuclear-free world.

The UN resolution, endorsing calls by U.S. President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev to eliminate all nuclear weapons, "indicates a global consensus for this goal has been achieved," Global Zero said in a press release.

Global Zero, a group of more than 200 political and military leaders from around the world, will hold a plenary session in February for strategy talks on the phased elimination of arsenals and launch of global public campaign, the release said. The UN Security Council on Thursday unanimously adopted a resolution to stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons in a bid to seek a safer world for all and to create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons. More >>>

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UN chief makes appeal for disarmament on International Day of Peace

UNITED NATIONS, Sept. 18 (Xinhua) -- UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon Friday called on nations to intensify efforts to reduce stockpiles of weapons capable of inflicting large-scale devastation and death as the United Nations held a series of events worldwide to observe the annual International Day of Peace.

"As long as such weapons exist, no one is safe," Ban said after ringing the UN Peace Bell in a ceremony at the UN Headquarters in New York. "On this International Day of Peace, I have a simple message for all: We Must Disarm! We must have peace." More >>>

Disarmament: Assessing the Prospects for an FM(C)T

The May 29 adoption of a program of work by the Conference on Disarmament (CD) in Geneva marked the first time in 11 years that the 65-member body had taken such action.

That step was a cause for celebration as it appeared to open the door to the negotiation of a treaty banning the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.
The White House was quick to applaud the development with a statement by President Barack Obama welcoming “today’s important agreement at the Conference on Disarmament to begin negotiations on a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty, which will end production of fissile materials for use in atomic bombs.”[1] Regrettably, the applause now seems premature as events since May 29 suggest that hopes for rapid progress in the CD are unrealistic. More >>>

Disarmament lessons from the Chemical Weapons Convention

BY MIKHAIL GORBACHEV AND ROGELIO PFIRTER

The recent joint declaration by U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to negotiate a new treaty reducing their countries' nuclear stockpiles as a first step toward "a nuclear-weapon-free world" has spurred hopes for renewed progress in global disarmament after a decade of gridlock.

An excellent example of how nations can work together effectively within a multilateral framework to eliminate weapons of mass destruction is the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).

The convention is unique in the sphere of disarmament and nonproliferation--an international treaty that abolishes an entire class of weapons of mass destruction under a stringent regime of inspections to verify compliance. Since its entry into force in April 1997, the convention has attracted 188 States Parties representing 98 percent of the world's population and chemical industries, the fastest rate of accession for any arms control treaty in history. More >>>

China strongly committed to nuclear weapons free world

BEIJING, May 23 (Xinhua) -- China is strongly committed to a world without nuclear weapons, Gareth Evans, co-chair of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (ICNND), told a press conference on the sidelines of the North-east Asia Regional Meeting of the ICNND here Saturday.

The regional meeting, which was held Friday and Saturday, allowed the ICNND to engage in intensive action with key nuclear experts providing insights on global and regional nuclear issues and challenges, including proliferation threats and the safe and secure management of the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

Evans said, "There is a need to energize a very high-level global political debate on what remains very important risks and threats for the future of this world." More >>>

US wants India to sign NPT

In what is a toughening of stance on nuclear non-proliferation, the US has said its “fundamental objective” continues to be to see that India — along with Israel, Pakistan and North Korea — signs the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

This message was delivered at the preparatory committee meeting for the 2010 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference on Tuesday by Rose Gottemoeller, US Assistant Secretary of State (for verification, compliance and implementation). In a not-so-subtle reference to Pakistan, she also referred to limiting and verifiable end to fissile material production worldwide, especially in South Asia, to avoid “theft or seizure (of nuclear materials) by terrorist groups”.
India has rejected the NPT as being discriminatory, for it allows the permanent members of the UN Security Council (US, Russia, China, UK and France) to have nuclear arsenals without any obligations to disarm, while India, despite being a nuclear weapons state, has to sign the treaty as a non-nuclear weapons state and subject itself to inspections. India also believes that the NPT has failed to institutionalise nuclear non-proliferation and verifiable reduction in nuclear arsenals globally. More >>>

Obama's Nuclear Realism

April 24 2009 - In a major foreign policy address in Prague, President Obama declared America's commitment "to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons." The president warned that this goal would not be reached quickly, "perhaps not in my lifetime." Nevertheless, some critics have charged that Obama is caught up in a nuclear disarmament fantasy.

In fact, the president's approach is one of steely-eyed realism. Nuclear weapons present us with a set of bad choices. Obama's choice -- to take nuclear arms control and nonproliferation seriously -- is the one most likely to lead to a secure future.

In one sense, there isn't a choice at all. Article 6 of the U.S. Constitution declares that ratified treaties are the "supreme law of the land," and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), ratified by the United States almost 40 years ago, commits us to pursue nuclear disarmament. And in fact, a realistic foreign policy will recognize this as an important goal. More >>>

Talk on decade of nuclear learning

South Asian Strategic Stability Institute Islamabad Hosts Security Analysts talk on nuclear lessons.

April 17, 2009 - Effective functioning of nuclear deterrence relies on shared concept of risk and reality and the absence of such a shared concept may undermine the robustness of the deterrence, said Brigadier (r) Feroz Hassan Khan

Brigadier (r) Feroz Hassan Khan, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California and a renowned security analyst, stated this while delivering a talk on ‘A Decade of Nuclear Learning’ organised by the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI), a multi-disciplinary institution and an independent think-tank dedicated to promotion of peace and stability in South Asia, on its premises here Thursday.

According to a press release, Brigadier (r) Feroz dilated upon the evolution of Pakistani and Indian policies over the 10-year period since the two countries tested their nuclear weapons in May 1998. He opined that the nuclear learning developed differently in India and Pakistan. The divergent paths, taken by the two countries in the development of nuclear policies and forces, produced dissimilar concept of nuclear deterrence, he said.

Earlier, SASSI Director Maria Sultan welcomed the guests and highlighted the significance of the topic in her opening remarks.