Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Queen of Asia: Welcome to Pakistan Mr. Putin

In an article titled “Is Afghanistan a cover-up” published in the the Voice of Russia, Olga Denisova refelcts Russian thinking when she quotes the Director of the Centre for Geopolitical Expertise Valery Korovin ‘The US is implementing its Anaconda geopolitical strategy adopted several years ago. It consists in surrounding Eurasia with US military bases for the economic and strategic stifling of a large territory with Russia in the middle. Now we are witnessing the implementation of one of the stages of this project, which is already several decades old.’

Russia is counter-balancing the US moves in land-locked Tajikistan–which can never be successful without Pakistan.

A pro-Pakistan artcile published in Pravda on August 28th, 2012 with the title “Pakistan can make Russia the Queen of Asia” sets the stage for the change of attitude towards Pakistan by Russia. In the article the author, Lyuba Lulko says that “establishing close cooperation with Pakistan will give Russia a real chance to gain a foothold in Central and South Asia. In addition, Russia will be able to access the Indian Ocean, and make the U.S. troops in Afghanistan directly dependent on its logistics.”

Lyuba Lulko further says that “The constant and rude attempts of the United States to interfere in the internal affairs of a nuclear power raise overt anger in this country at all levels”. This sort of criticism of the US is part of Moscow’s real thinking since the days of the Cold War. No matter what Obama said during his nomination speech, the fact remains that the Kremlin doesn’t like the US hegemony on wold affairs and will do whatever is necessary to increase in dimunative stature.

Lulko reminds his readers that “A special envoy of the President of Russia visited Pakistan in May 2012. Putin himself accepted the invitation to come to Pakistan for a bilateral meeting in Islamabad, prior to the IV quadrilateral meeting on Afghanistan. The meeting is to be held in Islamabad on 26-27 September 2012 with the participation of Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and Russia. A new strategic partnership is brewing in the region.”

Obviously both events are seminal in nature and will change the linkages between Islamabad and Moscow.

President Putin in coming to Pakistan. The first ever Russian president to ever visit Pakistan. This is a colossal event and will lead to change in the post-US-withdrawal events in Afghanistan. His visit will not dramatically change the civil and military ties but will reverse a trend in Pakistan-Russian relations, from adversary to neuteral to some sort of cooperative ally.

The Kremlin finally decided that Pakistan must be part of the solution.

The format of four-way cooperation with Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan should help Moscow prepare for the eventual pullback of the U.S.-led forces from Afghanistan.

In Sochi, the new forum, which Mr. Medvedev described as “a working regional format,” was institutionalised as a permanent arrangement, independent of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation

The other project is a motor road and a railway from Tajikistan to Pakistan across the Wakhan corridor in extreme northeast Afghanistan — a buffer the British created at the end of the 19th century between the Russian and British empires.

The proposed transport link resurrecting the ancient Silk Road would be a strategic gain for the countries involved. Pakistan will receive direct access to the markets of Central Asia and Russia, while Tajikistan — and Russia — will get access to Pakistani ports. China will also stand to gain, as the road is likely to be linked with the Karakorum Highway connecting Pakistan with China’s Xinjiang region.

“Russia may become a donor of economic, social and military-political security for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan,” Chairman of the Russian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee Konstantin Kosachev said commenting on the Sochi summit.

The periodic quadripartite summits of Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan hosted by President Dmitry Medvedev and Putin at Dushambe, and Sochi, must have made South Block strategists in Delhi sit up. The next one is in Islamabad. Moscow decisively moved to de-hyphenate its relations with Islamabad and New Delhi. The silence from Delhi is telling a story. More