Several published reports indicate that top Israeli decisionmakers now are seriously consideringwhether to order a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and if so, when.
Twice in Israel’shistory, it has conducted air strikes aimed at halting or delaying what Israeli policymakersbelieved to be efforts to acquire nuclear weapons by a Middle Eastern state—destroying Iraq’sOsirak reactor in 1981 and a facility the Israelis identified as a reactor under construction in Syriain 2007. Today, Israeli officials generally view the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran as anunacceptable threat to Israeli security—with some viewing it as an existential threat.
This report analyzes key factors that may influence current Israeli political decisions relating to apossible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. These include, but are not limited to, the views of andrelationships among Israeli leaders; the views of the Israeli public; U.S., regional, andinternational stances and responses as perceived and anticipated by Israel; Israeli estimates of thepotential effectiveness and risks of a possible strike; and responses Israeli leaders anticipate fromIran and Iranian-allied actors—including Hezbollah and Hamas—regionally and internationally.
For Congress, the potential impact—short- and long-term—of an Israeli decision regarding Iranand its implementation is a critical issue of concern. By all accounts, such an attack could haveconsiderable regional and global security, political, and economic repercussions, not least for theUnited States, Israel, and their bilateral relationship. It is unclear what the ultimate effect of astrike would be on the likelihood of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. The current Israeligovernment, President Barack Obama, and many Members of Congress have shared concernsabout Iran’s nuclear program. They appear to have a range of views on how best to address thoseshared concerns. Iran maintains that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful, civilian energypurposes, and U.S. intelligence assessments say that Iran has not made a decision to build nuclearweapons. However, Iran continues to enrich uranium in militarily hardened sites and questionsremain about its nuclear weapons capabilities and intentions. More
