The Afghan government could implode after NATO troops pull out in 2014, particularly if presidential elections are fraudulent, according to a report by the International Crisis Group (ICG).
A repeat could undermine what little hope remains for stability after the Afghan government takes full responsibility for security from US-led NATO forces, the analysis by the respected Brussels-based group says.
The report, Afghanistan: The Long, Hard Road to the 2014 Transition, says the country is on course in 2014 for another set of fraudulent elections after the chaotic presidential and parliamentary polls in 2009 and 2010.
"There is a real risk that the regime in Kabul could collapse upon NATO's withdrawal," Candace Rondeaux, the ICG's senior Afghanistan analyst, says in the report.
"The window for remedial action is closing fast."
"The Afghan army and police are overwhelmed and underprepared for the transition," Rondeaux says. "Another botched election and resultant unrest would push them to breaking point."
The coalition, which has waged an 11-year war against Taliban fighters, is reducing its troop numbers from a peak of some 130,000, and almost all combat forces are scheduled to quit the country by the end of 2014.
Police targeted
Within hours of the report's publication, a suicide car bomber targeted on Monday a police station in Lashkar Gar, capital of the southern Helmand province, killing two intelligence agents and wounding 15 other people.
Afghan police are increasingly targets of such assaults as they take a bigger role in the fight against the Taliban in the run-up to of the NATO withdrawal.
Speaking to Al Jazeera from Kabul, Rondeaux said: "Today you have an economic crisis which is growing by the day, and there is a lot of fear among Afghans over the future of Karzai's regime, and no one knows what is going to happen."
She said that up until now there are no visible preparations for the elections. "Instead what you have are the gears of transition working in reverse against the gears of transformation," she said.
"Everyone was hoping that 2014 would be the dawn of the new age politically for the country. Now there is a great deal of concern that these elections may not even happen."
The UN-backed government of President Hamid Karzai and the parliament have failed to take any serious steps towards preparing for a clean vote, Rondeaux said.
"Karzai seems more interested in perpetuating his own power by any means rather than ensuring credibility of the political system and long-term stability in the country."
The president is constitutionally required to step down at the end of his second term in 2014, and has said he will do so, but there are fears that he might try to manipulate the polls to ensure the election of an ally, possibly one of his brothers.
"The danger is President Karzai's top priority is maintaining control, either directly or via a trusted proxy," Rondeaux says in the ICG report. More
